Afghanistan

Overview

Afghanistan is affected by insecurity, infrastructure decay, and economic stagnation caused by decades of conflict, recurring natural hazards, and protracted and multiple displacement.?

In recent years, conflict between Afghan National Security Forces, the Taliban, and the Islamic State Khorasan Province has intensified. Violent attacks and armed clashes have severely impacted civilian infrastructure, including schools, hospitals, and roads. Following the Taliban’s announcement of its annual ‘spring offensive’ – in which fighting increases as the winter months come to an end – the conflict has been particularly active and remains the main driver of displacement in the country. 344,000 people were displaced in 2020 because of conflict and insecurity. The Taliban and the US signed a peace deal on 29 February 2020, paving the way for intra-Afghan talks, which began on 12 September 2020 and which saw representatives from the Afghan government and the Taliban come together for the first official talks in over 19 years.?

Afghanistan is also prone to natural disasters, including earthquakes, droughts, and floods. In 2020, 104,000 people were affected and 200 were killed by natural disasters, marking a significant decrease from the 306,000 people affected in 2019.?

Since 2012, 4.8 million people have remained internally displaced outside their areas of origin because of conflict and natural disasters. The largest IDP hosting areas are in the north, north-east, and eastern provinces, where conflict is active. More than half of IDPs live in provincial capitals, where public services are strained and struggling to cope.?

A high number of returnees, primarily from Iran and Pakistan, require additional support from local and international organisations. 2020 marked the highest rate of return for undocumented Afghan migrants (856,793 compared to 805,000 in 2018), mainly because of loss of work and wages, movement restrictions connected to COVID-19, and lack of access to medical services in host countries. The provinces with the highest number of returnees are Kandahar, Nangarhar, Herat, and Takhar.?

INFORM indicates that Afghanistan’s risk of humanitarian crisis is very high, with a score of 8.1/10. This is because of the country’s high hazard exposure and vulnerability.?

Latest Developments

10/04/2021: Three female health workers were killed by unidentified gunman on 30 March in Jalalabad while providing polio vaccinations. The attack interrupted the vaccination campaign in three districts. Given that 40% of the polio campaign workers are women, the incident has raised concerns about their safety and could likely impact the scale of the campaign ?.

17/03/2021: Extremely low levels of precipitation from October 2020-February 2021 have impacted water availability for crop irrigation across most of the country (central and northern region had above-average). Below average rainfall and above-average temperatures expected in the upcoming spring season are likely to result in below-average wheat production. This year spring cultivation is particularly important, given that winter-wheat production is already under stress. Active conflict, including the annual spring Taliban offensive, has repercussions on livelihood activities – especially for displaced people – and access to markets. The lean season, usually lasting from January to May, increases reliance on markets to meet basic food needs and the prices of basic goods such as cooking oil, rice, and beans tend to increase. Wheat prices are currently 27% above the four-year average. 13.1 million people, or 40% of the population, is facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or higher levels of food insecurity across Afghanistan. Given these conditions, food insecurity across the country is likely to persist.?